The dollar steadied on Wednesday
as investors awaited guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve,
expected to reiterate a cautious stance on raising interest
rates when it wraps up a two-day policy meeting later in the
day.
In European trading the Norwegian crown slipped
towards a four-month low against the euro, after data showed
Norwegian unemployment surging and consumption falling, fuelling
interest rate cut bets.
But the main focus remained on the Fed, which is due to
publish its latest statement at 1800 GMT and seems all but
certain to announce the end of its $4 trillion bond-buying
stimulus programme.
Less certain is the precise language that the Fed will use,
though investors expect the central bank to reassure markets
that, with U.S. inflation weak and global growth slowing, any
rate hike is still a long way off.
"We expect a relatively unchanged statement, which wouldn't
be all that exciting for markets - markets are leaning towards a
reasonably dovish outcome," said Josh O'Byrne, a currency
strategist at Citi.
"We think that's supportive for crosses like the
Aussie/dollar and kiwi/dollar heading into the RBNZ later this
evening," he added, referring to a policy announcement from New
Zealand's central bank due two hours after the Fed.
The Australian dollar climbed 0.3 percent to $0.8878, edging
towards a three-week high, while its New Zealand
counterpart rose 0.2 percent to $0.7938.
The dollar index held steady 85.377, having slipped
on Tuesday after data showed a sharp drop in demand for
U.S.-made capital goods. For the week, the index is down about
0.4 percent.
Investors will pay close attention to whether the Fed's
statement continues to refer to "significant" slack in the U.S.
labour market as well as whether it retains language indicating
rates will remain low for a "considerable time", which many
economists expect.
"Even a small modification to the (Fed) language would be
taken as hawkish and the dollar would benefit from that," said
Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy at RBC Capital
Markets in London.
NORWEGIAN CROWN GETS A KNOCK
The Swedish crown stabilised after sliding to four-year lows
on Tuesday, after the Riksbank cut interest rates to zero and
said it would delay tightening policy until the middle of 2016
as it moved to tackle the risk of deflation.
Both the euro and dollar jumped to four-year highs of 9.3912
crowns and 7.3824 crowns respectively on
Tuesday as a result of the rate cut. They have since steadied at
9.3490 and 7.3454.
"In our view, the Riksbank's dovish forward guidance has
pushed the SEK (crown) into the FX funding currency club,
alongside the euro, the Swiss franc and the yen," analysts at
BNP Paribas wrote in a note to clients. "We expect the SEK to
underperform higher-yielding currencies during times of healthy
and improving risk appetite."
The bet that Norway's central bank would eventually have to
follow suit in cutting rates sent the Norwegian crown to a day's
low of 8.4859 crowns per euro. It last traded at 8.4754 crowns
per euro, down 0.6 percent on the day.
The euro held steady at $1.2735, near a one-week high
of $1.2765 set on Tuesday. Traders said big option expiries in
the $1.2700-25 area could keep the common currency tethered in
the near term.
(Editing by John Stonestreet and Toby Chopra)
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